Earl’s Lost Theory That Explains It All

Maybe I’m right. Maybe I’m wrong. Maybe I’m spoiling three whole years worth of episodes. Click here if you want to read my theory and keep score for the rest of the series.

Remember the Deep Space Nine episode Battle Lines, where if you died on that planet you’d effectively become immortal, but had to stay there or you’d die when you left? (Come to think of it, Space: 1999 did one like that too, with Brian Blessed.) Now let’s say that the “die when you leave” rule doesn’t apply instantly. You can leave the island for a week, maybe two weeks, and you must go back or die.

The Hanso foundation is behind both DHARMA and the “Hostiles.” The Hostiles were the first group, and many of them were found there when Hanso found the island (perhaps looking for his ancestor’s ship). They were actually members of the ship’s crew, met with various grisly fates, and became immortal. Hanso left Alpert on the island to take charge, but they killed him and triggered his immortality, which he may or may not have reported to HQ. This explains him not aging – he could have arrived there in the 1950s or 1960s. However, this first group decided that the best use of their newfound immortality was conquest: a soldier who simply can’t die is the ultimate weapon. Alpert, perhaps a bit of a hawk himself, convinced Hanso he should stay to “observe,” but perhaps what he hasn’t told his boss is that he was effectively leading them. I don’t think he mutinied against Hanso because he still seems to have significant resources at his disposal – i.e. transport off the island as recently as 3 years ago (see the Juliet flashback episodes). Considering how over-the-edge one would have to be to see all this as a good thing, I would place these events during the Cold War – the height of the arms buildup.

The second group, which Hanso sent to the island, was DHARMA. They’re a control group in the experiment to see what causes the immortality and if it can be reversed. The Valenzetti Equation is a smokescreen. The Hostiles want to keep the secret for themselves, and Alpert goes along with it, because he can see big dollar signs out of the deal if they can figure out what it is, and sell it on the arms market. Also bear in mind that before he set about saving the world, supposedly by researching the Valenzetti Equation, Alvar Hanso was in the munitions business. All of this may well be going on with his full knowledge and support.

The “Disease” referred to by so many DHARMA folk, as well as Rousseau, is in fact immortality. The shots they take may actually be something that staves it off – temporarily – and may be something extracted from or chemically derived from the pregnant women that have died on the island. If you die on the island when the shot has worn off, you’ll become immortal. The reason Ben made such an issue out of Locke killing Anthony Cooper at the appointed hour is because to wait too long would’ve rendered Cooper immortal. The way Locke did things, we may well see Cooper again.

The Purge is reported to Hanso as a mass death from disease, but not a massacre. The DHARMA food and supply drops continue for the benefit of Alpert’s group, and the Hanso Foundation fully understands that the original group is now manning the DHARMA stations.

Mikhail and Locke are both examples of those who have died and thus triggered the immortality; this is how Locke can survive being shot, and Mikhail can survive both the sonic fence and the spear to the chest. They can’t die as long as they stay on the island. Charlie may or may not really be dead, though given that Dominic Monaghan is leaving the show, it may be a while before we see him again; it may also be the drowning is one of the few ways to truly kill someone on/near the island. And Christian Sheppard may very well be alive, not an illusion conjured up by the Monster. The sighting of Walt in the season finale…well, that was just Locke’s feverish mind. The island isn’t talking to anybody. Ben and Locke are both just unhinged enough to think it is.

The EM anomaly may have been another discovery that Hanso/DHARMA hoped to harness, but Desmond did away with. The Monster may be some unfortunate, but mostly controllable side-effect of the research being done into the immortality effect.

And Jacob? He’s the elder Hanso, the captain of the Black Rock. He realizes the terrible implications of what he and his men discovered so long ago, and he just wants to be free of it so he can die a natural death. The trail of ash may be the remnants of a suicide attempt – perhaps he tried to stand in a trail/pool of gunfire, and tried to ignite it to kill himself.

The new group, represented by Naomi, may be a hawk faction within the Hanso Foundation, or an entity that split off from Hanso with knowledge of the island’s unique properties. They’re ready to use it as a weapon, following the path that Hanso abandoned in his later years. And they’ve just found a nice selection of guinea pigs, just waiting for them…

How’m I doin’?